PerryGeo

We did it!

As some of you may know in 2005 through 2006, I was part of a research team[1] , led by Ben Halpern at NCEAS, developing a global model of human impacts on the marine ecosystem. We created or compiled 17 high-resolution global datasets of human-induced threats (land-based pollutants, fishing, shipping, climate change, etc.) and 20 ocean habitat datasets. These were combined to create an impact index which models the cumulative level of human-induced stress on our oceans.

The results were published today in Science magazine and presented yesterday at the AAAS Annual Meeting. To summarize, we found that the entire ocean is affected and 40% is heavily impacted. It is not all bad news as there are many areas of relatively low impact which could provide examples for ecosystem restoration and opportunities for conservation. The global map is the first of its kind and will help clarify and quantify our cumulative impacts on the ocean and allow us to focus efforts geographically. The model is not perfect and can’t really be used to make decisions at a very localized scale but, given the available globally-consistent, reasonably-high-resolution data for all the various ocean threats and habitats, this is the best effort to date. The model itself is relatively simple with a very clear methodology which will allow scientists to tweak the parameters and add better data as it becomes available. For those of you interested in the GIS modeling end, NCEAS has a great summary of the data used in the model. Most of the data are available as raster data products or KML.

The media has picked up on the story with NPR, MSNBC, The Washington Post, USA Today and National Geographic covering it (to name a few). I especially recommend the NPR site as it has a great animation and an audio segment.

So congratulations to everyone who made this happen!

[1] Benjamin S. Halpern, Shaun Walbridge, Kimberly A. Selkoe, Carrie V. Kappel, Fiorenza Micheli, Caterina D’Agrosa, John F. Bruno, Kenneth S. Casey, Colin Ebert, Helen E. Fox, Rod Fujita, Dennis Heinemann, Hunter S. Lenihan, Elizabeth M.P. Madin, Matthew T. Perry, Elizabeth R. Selig, Mark Spalding, Robert Steneck, Reg Watson (2008). A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science, vol. 319

EDIT:

Some additional articles:

• New York Times
• BBC Video on YouTube

I got the chance to see Paul Hawken speak tonight in Santa Barbara. I knew him best as the author of Natural Capitalism which provided a great roadmap for integrating ecologically sustainable practices with the business world. This talk was based on his recent book - Blessed Unrest - How the Largest Movement in the World Came into Being and Why No One Saw It Coming.

The basis of this book is simple: that organically-developed, bottom-up, non-hierarchical organizations (which number in the millions according to his research) are now leading the world in many diverse areas of service. He describes these environmental and social justice organizations as the “immune system” of our societies; our response to destructive and corrupt habits perpetrated by those in power who are willing to compromise our future for short-term gain.

One thing that struck me about the subject was the importance of sharing information and ideas (as opposed to spreading an ideology). I thought one of the most interesting stories of the night was his description of how the meme of non-violent civil disobedience evolved… from Emerson, to Thoreau, to Ghandi, to Rosa Parks to Martin Luther King, Jr. At each turn of the story, there was someone (often unnamed but vitally important) who turned on each of these people to the ideas of those who came before.

Paul was eager to point out the role of technology in this inter-connected mesh of grassroots community organizations. He mentioned open-source software a few times and even gave a shout out to Ruby on Rails (which I gather was the backbone for his WiserEarth.org site focussed on connecting these diverse organizations).

It was a careful mix of optimism and pessimism; Paul was careful in noting the many severe challenges we’ve been handed but was confident that this bottom-up mesh of interconnected citizens can form a community strong enough to withstand anything that comes it’s way. In the end, his message was about doing what you love, connecting with others and standing up for your values. Sounds like good advice to me.